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A few months ago in this journal, I wrote an open article to former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, essentially making the case for him not to bother to bring peace to the Arab-Israeli sixty year old conflict. I am flattered that he may have actually heeded my counsel, for we have hardly heard anything substantive from him since my article was published! Perhaps he’s smarter than I thought.
It seems that the torch (or torture) has now passed on to Secretary of State Condi Rice at Annapolis. After seven years of inattention (or rather, scandalously one-sided attention) to the conflict, President Bush has suddenly realized that the only way he can salvage anything close to an honorable legacy is to bring peace to Arabs and Israelis. So, poor old Condi has been delegated the task – and she has been given one year to do it. Even in peace making, this President has a self serving focus: setting a deadline based not on the urgency of a situation which is virtually out of control (and beyond salvaging if Israel’s “business as usual” continues), but based on the remaining duration of his presidency! But at least he is being consistent with yet another knee-jerk reaction.
I remember what John Kennedy said shortly after he entered the White House: “The only surprise we had was that things were really as bad as we had been saying they were during the campaign.” Based on that valuable lesson, it’s a sure bet that things are actually far worse than most people think and it should come as no surprise to anyone when the true extent of the disarray in the current administration is revealed. Perhaps that’s why so many of the staff have been bailing out so far ahead of the next election.
You have to ask yourself whatever happened to “accountability?” Just take the handful of Neocon war mongers who got us into the current mess in Iraq. They did so without the slightest regard for the political and economic interests of this country, knowingly and deliberately ignoring the geopolitical reality of the powder keg that continues to be the Middle East. Most despicable of all, they are not being held to account and many of them have moved on to better and higher jobs.
I respect Condi Rice, but I also think that just because she is able to read Russian newspapers and play the piano well, this does not necessarily qualify her to be the Secretary of State of the world’s only superpower – unless, of course, you remember that, historically (and especially in Republican administrations), the American Secretary of State is merely a figurehead who is expected to do as ordered by the President and by the real powers behind him. In the first few months following her appointment as Secretary of State, Condi jetsetted around the globe in the latest fashion outfits, being hugged by, world leaders in carefully choreographed settings, showing us much style but virtually no substance. Those days are now distant history.
Historical events and data help us to predict the future. What better example to look at than the “peace” process of the past sixty years. Journalist Gideon Rachman has done this far better than I could. He and his Jerusalem colleague recently made a quick list of the number of Middle East peace plans and conferences and quickly came up with Venice, Madrid, Oslo, Camp David I, Camp David II, Taba, the Rogers plan, the Anan plan, the Reagan plan, the Tenet plan, the Saudi plan, the Mitchell report, the Geneva accord, and (least but not last) the so-called Road Map. I have to confess I had not realized that there were so many, else I would have spoken up sooner.
So, tell us Miss. Rice, with that stellar record of numerous administrations and so many failed plans and efforts (the reasons for which are very clear to those of us who understand who drives this country’s agenda in the Middle East), what are you going to do differently? Bear in mind that things have changed on the ground since the last efforts. The massive demonstrations against Annapolis that just took place in Gaza, in the West Bank, and in Jerusalem are trying to tell you this: neither Arabs nor Israelis trust the motives of your bosses and neither side has confidence in your competence. But don’t take that personally, because they don’t have much faith in their own leaders, either. As statesmen and peacemakers, Mahmoud Abbas ain’t no Anwar Sadat and Ehud Olmert ain’t no Itzak Rabin (and, of course, George Bush ain’t no Jimmy Carter).
In fact, the political survival of Abbas and Olmert are in doubt and George Bush is a lame duck president way ahead of schedule. Based on the timid track record of Abbas, the Palestinian masses know that he will never be able to secure the release of thousands of prisoners languishing for years in Israeli jails, nor secure the right of exiled refugees to return, let alone get any meaningful concessions. As for Olmert, given his alleged legal troubles and his lack of charisma, his political and more hawkish adversaries are just itching to pounce on him, assisted by the support of the well-organized, well-funded West Bank settlers, all 270,000 or so of whom will surely fiercely resist being uprooted from the occupied lands (though it may do them some good to get a taste of their own illicit medicine).
For years, knowledgeable people on all sides have said that Palestinians and Israelis should work out their differences between themselves, since they understand each other better than anyone, given their common Semitic roots and decades of tragic conflict. So what did you do? You invited almost fifty delegations from other countries to show up at Annapolis! Most of us do not even know who they are and most of them seemed to be camera shy. Journalists are already questioning if you are more interested in securing peace, or (at the behest of others) in snubbing your nose at Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran, all of whom have somehow managed to appeal quite effectively to the Arab masses on the streets but none of whom were invited to Annapolis, contrary to the advice of seasoned political strategists.
Consistent with the past seven years, the errors of your era continue!
Good luck, Condi. You’ll need it.
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